A group of Sri Lankans from Harvard University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Yale/ Rajarata University predicts that even with all strict control measures in place, the Sri Lankan COVID-19 outbreak will go on for at least 10-12 more weeks. Dushan Wadduwage and Savithru Jayasinghe (Harvard/MIT) has develop the model with inputs from Prof. Suneth Agampodi. The interactive model is based on limited Sri Lankan data as well as considering data from China. The model predicts that if the long term plans are as successful as current control strategies, we might be able to control the epidemic by the end of June. However, this is the “best case scenario”.
Maintaining the high level control measure with increasing cases numbers is going to a challenge. This will need rapid diagnostics kits to expand community screening, contact tracing, more healthcare facilities together with travel restrictions, social isolation and quarantine. These measure will create frustration and economic crisis among general public leading to added public health crisis. Comprehensive multisectoral approach including economic and social measures together with public health strategies will be required to fight COVID-19. Policy makers can look at the different outcomes by changing the model parameters by accessing the model here.